Oct. 31, 2021

E2: Cattle, and Sharks, and COVID, Oh My!

Apple Podcasts podcast player badge
Spotify podcast player badge
RSS Feed podcast player badge
Apple Podcasts podcast player icon Spotify podcast player icon RSS Feed podcast player icon
Season 1

COVID was supposed to be that "Independence Day" external threat that would unite us all. Instead, it divided us. How did that happen? In this episode we talk about the danger of statistics and how lies can be less misleading than carefully selected truths. 

Support the show

Chapters

00:55 - COVID statistics on the surface

02:47 - Measurement accuracy, but who cares?

05:34 - Cows, Sharks, and the Gambler's Fallacy

10:41 - How Sharks and Kevin Costner apply to COVID

12:45 - Human Ingenuity vs. Statistics

14:31 - How We were robbed of our "Independence Day"

18:07 - Social Media and the KGB

21:44 - WWI was soooo overrated... Really?!

23:30 - This Chapter is dedicated to our Elders

27:34 - Herd immunity vs Data

29:45 - Shooting to Maim

33:57 - Sun Tzu and the Art of Pandemics

39:21 - Final Destination 2020

49:48 - You Lack (Trigger) Discipline!

Transcript
WEBVTT

00:00:06.000 --> 00:00:22.739
All these businessmen started picking up copies of Sun Tzu.

00:00:23.429 --> 00:00:26.579
Now, everyone has a copy of“The Art of War”, and no one ever reads it.

00:00:27.179 --> 00:00:29.699
It's kind of like Christians with the Bible...

00:00:32.159 --> 00:00:48.270
I'm joking, joking, I'm joking! Welcome to Come On! Don't Bullshit Me! Where we peel away the messaging of the talking heads to get to the crux of today's issues.

00:00:55.229 --> 00:00:59.909
There's an old expression that there is lies, damn lies, and statistics.

00:01:00.450 --> 00:01:01.950
People are lying with statistics.

00:01:01.951 --> 00:01:10.530
And the final statistics that people like to throw out has underlying hidden statistics that it derives itself from.

00:01:11.040 --> 00:01:16.590
The big thing that they're trying to say is that, oh, COVID is not a big deal, so we shouldn't really worry about it.

00:01:16.859 --> 00:01:18.930
And that's where a lot of hate is coming from.

00:01:19.260 --> 00:01:30.900
They come around saying that, oh, it only really kills 2% of people, and even still, it only affects people who are older, or sick, or have comorbidities...

00:01:29.941 --> 00:01:32.069
That is a new buzzword.

00:01:32.280 --> 00:01:36.060
No one knew what the word“morbidity” was, but now everyone seems to be an English expert.

00:01:36.599 --> 00:01:37.829
So they say, oh, yeah, you have comorbidities.

00:01:37.859 --> 00:01:47.159
And they say that if you are healthy and young, then you don't have anything to worry about, and that we should just open everything back up and not worry about anything.

00:01:47.549 --> 00:01:52.170
They say COVID is overblown, it's a hoax, because death rate is so low.

00:01:52.890 --> 00:02:06.989
And people like to pull out statistics and say,“Oh, look at the CDC data or WHO data!” And people are already mathematically illiterate as it is, but then when you arm them with a little bit of knowledge...

00:02:07.590 --> 00:02:11.550
or it's not even knowledge, it's information because they don't really apply it.

00:02:11.550 --> 00:02:13.770
Knowledge is the application of information.

00:02:14.009 --> 00:02:19.800
But you give them a little bit information, and then they know enough to be dangerous, so they quote...

00:02:20.280 --> 00:02:28.710
I don't want to say"bogus statistics”, because the statistics on the surface are correct, but the statistics is used in bad faith.

00:02:28.980 --> 00:02:46.560
Actually, I shouldn't even say that, because again, like I said, they are mathematically illiterate, so they think they are applying the statistics in a good faith way, but because they're mathematically literate, they leap to conclusions that are erroneous at best malicious at worst.

00:02:47.669 --> 00:02:47.939
Okay.

00:02:47.941 --> 00:02:55.500
So, first off, those statistics are only available, if the government in question is actually taking good statistics.

00:02:55.740 --> 00:03:00.699
Obviously, the big offenders are China, Russia, India, and Turkey.

00:03:00.099 --> 00:03:13.210
Maybe because they don't have the means to take those statistics, presumably like it was in the case of India; or they are willfully obfuscating the statistics, like it was, allegedly, in the case of Russia and China.

00:03:13.599 --> 00:03:33.340
And there are a lot of enterprising reporters who said, okay, I'm going to ignore the COVID death rates given by the sovereign nations, that are being reported, and instead I'm going to look at their equivalent of the bureau or office of vital statistics, or whatever it is, and basically look at the excess deaths.

00:03:33.341 --> 00:03:46.060
Because you can make a reasonable assumption that, if you look at all the excess deaths of 2020 versus other years, you can probably attribute those to the pandemic, because that's the only thing that really changed.

00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:50.259
And then the death rates were enormously higher.

00:03:50.260 --> 00:04:00.069
But, of course, since we are only following the News outlets, rightfully so, we can only really quote the statistics from the WHO, as that is what is being reported.

00:03:59.979 --> 00:04:10.240
And I am sure some couple of years down the road there is going to be Math Masters or PhD candidates who are going to be taking these statistics, and they will produce a whole bunch of interesting papers on this.

00:04:10.241 --> 00:04:14.650
On how governments gated the actual death toll on the pandemic.

00:04:14.651 --> 00:04:16.060
When everything is all said and done.

00:04:16.060 --> 00:04:20.170
Hopefully, this thing will die out and we are not going to live with this.

00:04:33.759 --> 00:04:34.000
The 2% statistics that people quote is an American statistic, so, it comes from the CDC.

00:04:33.759 --> 00:04:34.000
And you can say, okay, the United States is pretty good and is being open and transparent around statistics.

00:04:33.759 --> 00:04:48.819
But as the pandemic was unfolding, not to get political on this, it just happens to be political, a lot of the right-wing governors, or the right-wing state governments, were under-reporting, false reporting, you name it, whatever type thing they were doing, to obfuscate their own State's death results.

00:04:48.829 --> 00:04:54.910
And all the CDC can do is really to just compile the States' results to a Federal level.

00:04:54.911 --> 00:05:02.620
So, if the States’ results are obfuscated, then, obviously, whatever is reported at the end by the CDC is also going to be obfuscated.

00:05:02.620 --> 00:05:09.189
But that is just a minor thing, because, good faith argument, we understand the point of what people are trying to say.

00:05:09.190 --> 00:05:14.649
I don't want to be like, oh, it was not 2%, it was more like 3.6%.

00:05:14.800 --> 00:05:31.360
The point is what they're trying to say, I get it, I understand: the final death toll, which is what seems to be the main issue, in their eyes was relatively low, and it didn’t justify the confinement or social shutdown that was warranted in 2020.

00:05:31.360 --> 00:05:33.040
That's what they argue.

00:05:34.540 --> 00:05:43.750
[ Music]

00:05:44.170 --> 00:05:51.970
The classic thing that people like to quote is, oh, did you know that more people die to cows than they do to shark attacks?

00:05:52.389 --> 00:05:54.279
And everyone thinks that this is such a profound thing.

00:05:54.281 --> 00:06:07.189
Like, oh my God, cows are so much more dangerous than sharks! And it probably started off with a well-intentioned meaning, because there was that whole thing where"Jaws", the movie, put a fear into people about sharks.

00:06:07.190 --> 00:06:14.930
And it was a disproportionate fear, because prior to that movie sharks weren't really feared by humans.

00:06:14.930 --> 00:06:17.720
But after the movie, all of a sudden, everyone was scared of sharks.

00:06:17.721 --> 00:06:23.689
And then the shark attacks started becoming more known because it was reported more.

00:06:23.271 --> 00:06:34.699
Like, oh my God, it's another shark attack! And then now, of course, we can't really separate the two things and we have this, I do not want to say irrational, but we have this heightened fear of sharks.

00:06:36.019 --> 00:06:40.759
And then you had statistic, which, again, may have started well-meaning, I don't know where it came from.

00:06:40.790 --> 00:06:49.189
But people used it to say, oh, look, you really shouldn't worry about sharks so much because, look, more people die from cows, than they do from sharks.

00:06:49.190 --> 00:06:58.970
While on the surface, that's true, the point is that humans interact more with cows, than they do with sharks.

00:06:58.980 --> 00:07:04.670
If you have 7 billion people in the world, and we all live on...

00:07:04.670 --> 00:07:11.839
ok, 99.999% of us live on land, with the occasional scuba divers.

00:07:11.841 --> 00:07:15.740
So, essentially, almost all of us live exclusively on land.

00:07:15.740 --> 00:07:23.029
So, obviously we are going to be encountering land animals more than we are going to be encountering the marine animals.

00:07:36.560 --> 00:07:36.980
So, mow I'm just throwing this completely wrong statistic, let's say, sharks are 25% dangerous, whereas cows are 0.01% dangerous.

00:07:36.560 --> 00:07:46.699
Well, if you take 7 billion people and then multiply it by that point one percent, that raw number is going to be a lot larger than a hundred people...

00:07:47.509 --> 00:07:52.670
or, let's say, a thousand people at one time encountering sharks at 25% rate.

00:07:52.850 --> 00:08:03.980
So, that raw number of people dealing with the cows is going to be a lot larger than the raw number of people encountering sharks.

00:08:04.279 --> 00:08:11.509
So, obviously when you compare the raw numbers at the end, you are going to be like, oh yeah, look, cows are more dangerous than the sharks, when in reality, no.

00:08:11.511 --> 00:08:13.670
Because sharks are more dangerous than cows.

00:08:13.670 --> 00:08:17.540
It's just that we don't interact with sharks so much.

00:08:17.750 --> 00:08:19.129
And that's why that number is there.

00:08:19.430 --> 00:08:25.040
So that profound statement has two hidden statistics underneath, that it is derived from.

00:08:25.879 --> 00:08:34.429
One is the dangerousness of the animal in question, and two being the exposure rate of the humans to that specific species.

00:08:35.240 --> 00:08:44.090
And the similar thing is going on with COVID: the underlying statistic is right, but the statistics only talk about things in the past.

00:08:44.480 --> 00:08:51.080
They don't talk about things in the future and people will say, oh well, yeah, but you can use statistics to predict the future.

00:08:51.860 --> 00:08:53.539
Well, yes and no.

00:08:53.960 --> 00:08:57.899
It's kind of like the gambler's fallacy: if you bet on a Russian roulette..

00:08:58.110 --> 00:09:13.350
excuse me, not a Russian roulette, you bet on roulette at the roulette table, and the roulette hits red five times, you're like, oh, I'm going to put all my money on black because it's due! It's bound to be black because it hit red five times before.

00:09:13.350 --> 00:09:16.590
Because you think the statistics predict what will be next.

00:09:16.591 --> 00:09:17.970
But no, that's actually not true.

00:09:17.971 --> 00:09:23.399
The probability of hitting black, minus the double zeros, is, basically, 50%.

00:09:23.400 --> 00:09:24.750
So, you still have a 50% chance of hitting red versus black.

00:09:23.970 --> 00:09:24.750
Again, ignoring the zeros for a second.

00:09:23.970 --> 00:09:24.750
You can't just say, oh, well, because the roulette table hit red five times before, it is going to be black this next turn.

00:09:24.960 --> 00:09:44.039
And it's the same thing applies to sharks versus cows.

00:09:46.051 --> 00:09:52.710
We talked about the attribution error of exposure to sharks versus exposure to cows.

00:09:53.370 --> 00:09:54.929
But that only talks about the past.

00:09:54.960 --> 00:10:07.799
Now, if all of a sudden, let's just say, we get into a Kevin Costner“Waterworld” situation, and now everyone is living in the ocean, you can't be like, oh, well, the statistics say cows are more dangerous than the sharks, so should not worry about it.

00:10:07.801 --> 00:10:13.110
Well, no, actually you really should worry about it, because now all humans are living in the ocean, so our exposure now is way more towards sharks than it is to cattle.

00:10:12.541 --> 00:10:13.110
Because we stated that the underlying made up dangerousness rate of sharks was 25% as opposed to 0.01% for cows.

00:10:12.541 --> 00:10:13.110
So, the raw numbers now are going to be much higher for sharks, because not only is the death rate against sharks is higher, but the humanity's exposure to sharks is higher, because now everyone is living in the Kevin Costner“Waterworld”.

00:10:13.289 --> 00:10:50.460
Just like in the cattle versus sharks situation, you have hidden underlying statistics from which that COVID 2% comes from.

00:10:51.029 --> 00:10:55.379
That statistic comes from a whole bunch of different factors.

00:10:55.470 --> 00:11:06.809
First off, we have to remember, that that 2% statistic comes from the situation of 2020, which was, essentially, the year of the lockdown.

00:11:10.679 --> 00:11:15.269
It's like, you're rolling a 50-sided die, and your chances of rolling a one is 2%.

00:11:15.270 --> 00:11:27.450
If I gave you a 50-sided die and said, hey, you're going to walk away, easy-peasy-nothing-happens, if you roll between a two and a 50; but if you roll a one, then you are going to get shot in the face by a guy in a PlayStation mask.

00:11:27.451 --> 00:11:33.750
But that's still an isolated case, because you are rolling the die once, and that's it.

00:11:33.779 --> 00:11:35.820
There's nothing else.

00:11:35.821 --> 00:11:36.899
The game ends right there.

00:11:36.900 --> 00:11:37.980
It starts there and ends there.

00:11:37.980 --> 00:11:45.090
Boom, done! But when we are talking a pandemic, it is a different situation, because a bullet is not contagious.

00:11:45.299 --> 00:11:50.279
If you get shot, there is not a risk that someone else is going to get shot after the fact that you got shot.

00:11:50.669 --> 00:11:55.360
Whereas the virus, once it infects someone, then it can affect others, and on and on and on.

00:11:55.360 --> 00:11:57.100
And that's how pandemics happen, right?

00:11:57.279 --> 00:12:11.080
So when we are talking about virology, or epidemics, or, in this case, a pandemic, the thing is, you can't take the statistics in isolation because every person that gets infected, further increases your chance of getting infected.

00:12:11.440 --> 00:12:13.750
And what was the big thing that happened in 2020?

00:12:13.779 --> 00:12:14.019
Oh yeah.

00:12:14.020 --> 00:12:16.539
That's right, the entire world, essentially, went on a lockdown.

00:12:16.870 --> 00:12:23.590
Well, that naturally was going to reduce the death rate of the virus, because less people were interacting with each other.

00:12:23.591 --> 00:12:39.850
Again, it is kind of like the shark situation: the COVID virus itself is dangerous, just like the shark is, but because we were in a lockdown, because we've been socially distancing, because we've been wearing masks, because we've been taking these public safety precautions, our exposure rate dropped.

00:12:39.940 --> 00:12:44.409
So, therefore, naturally, the end statistic, was going to drop and it became that 2% death rate.

00:12:46.090 --> 00:12:50.649
And then there were another fact: in the beginning of the pandemic we didn't know what that virus was.

00:12:50.860 --> 00:12:54.159
It is called a novel coronavirus, because it was a new thing.

00:12:54.309 --> 00:12:55.509
So we didn't know how to deal with it.

00:12:55.750 --> 00:13:07.120
And naturally, as the hospitals started dealing with it, gained more experience with that virus, their triage methods improved and the way they took care of patients improved.

00:13:07.450 --> 00:13:22.269
For example, one of the things that they like to cite news is that we learned, that you shouldn't lay people on their back, but you should lay them down on their stomach instead, and that'll help the patients get more air in and, apparently, improve their survivability chance.

00:13:22.270 --> 00:13:25.570
And, obviously, it's a very good thing.

00:13:25.779 --> 00:13:28.960
But when you're talking about the statistics, it is, an air quote, a"bad" thing.

00:13:28.990 --> 00:13:33.490
I'm using air quotes again here, because now your presumed death rate is going to be lowered not because the virus, all of a sudden, became less of a threat, but because human ingenuity figured out a way to deal with it.

00:13:33.820 --> 00:13:45.669
So, there's that.

00:13:45.671 --> 00:13:56.320
That by us being able to deal with the virus in a better capacity, we effectively reduced the death rate, which is, obviously, a good thing for humanity.

00:13:57.220 --> 00:14:03.610
But when you are trying to be dismissive and are flipping about the pandemic in general, it becomes a different story.

00:14:03.610 --> 00:14:09.850
Because not everyone is going to have access to knowledgeable healthcare staff.

00:14:09.850 --> 00:14:19.840
Because, maybe, you are in a different country, or you are in a different area, where these COVID best practices haven't been disseminated to yet, and they just legitimately don't know.

00:14:19.841 --> 00:14:23.440
Now, all of a sudden, you're dealing with that and then you're going to be lying on your back in this specific case.

00:14:23.171 --> 00:14:23.440
And now your probability of death is going to be higher than it is for the rest of the informed population.

00:14:23.500 --> 00:14:43.450
And the response to the pandemic has become needlessly politicized to the point where you cannot have an honest conversation about the potential ramifications of this virus.

00:14:43.960 --> 00:14:45.490
There are a lot of these alien movies.

00:14:45.490 --> 00:14:56.539
We like to talk about how everyone's fighting each other and how humans have wars, but… If you remember, in"Independence Day" movie the aliens came and all of a sudden, everyone banded together to face the common threat.

00:14:56.541 --> 00:15:01.039
Chinese, Russians, Americans– all fought together.

00:15:01.879 --> 00:15:19.009
And Bill Pullman had that famous– greatest movie cinematic president by far, even better than Harrison Ford in the the"Air Force One", which is saying something, because Harrison Ford was awesome in"Air Force One", but anyway, Bill Pullman– the greatest cinematic president ever, and then you also had those scenes of the Arab military working with the IDF, and everyone came together to face the common thread of those aliens.

00:15:18.500 --> 00:15:19.009
And, yeah, that's awesome...

00:15:19.399 --> 00:15:33.350
Well, now what we saw in this pandemic, is that was not the case.

00:15:33.350 --> 00:15:52.279
That even when we have an external threat, like the virus, when this was an opportunity for everyone to band together, because the virus does not discriminate, whether you're a leftist or rightist, whether you're a communist or capitalist, whether you're a Christian or a Muslim, the virus affects everyone.

00:15:52.519 --> 00:15:53.480
It doesn't care.

00:15:53.480 --> 00:16:01.370
So you'd think that, okay, we should band together, apolitically, and fight this pandemic.

00:16:02.000 --> 00:16:02.659
But instead...

00:16:02.660 --> 00:16:11.000
Maybe this was because the pandemic in most people's eyes wasn't as, quote,“bad” as they thought it was going to be, so they were able to afford to make this a political issue.

00:16:11.509 --> 00:16:19.309
And it did become a political issue.

00:16:20.421 --> 00:16:27.799
But what was surprising, was that it became a political issue in a way that was the opposite of what you would think it would be.

00:16:27.801 --> 00:16:32.210
Because you would think, okay, well, the Republicans are in charge, Donald Trump is in charge.

00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:41.210
Again, I'm talking from an American perspective, and a lot of it comes from the fact that the US perspective dominated the media and it was spread to the other parts of the world.

00:16:41.389 --> 00:16:42.529
Which is a separate topic in itself.

00:16:42.530 --> 00:16:45.830
But again, the point here is, we're focusing on the American perspective.

00:16:45.831 --> 00:16:49.340
The American perspective is: you have a Republican in charge, Donald Trump.

00:16:49.341 --> 00:16:54.649
This is a perfect chance for him to rally the nation together, like George W.

00:16:54.650 --> 00:16:57.320
Bush did after 9/11, and say, hey, we got this pandemic, this virus, it is affecting us all, so we need to band together and come together and fight this thing.

00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.320
And then you would have the Democrats, who, being the minority power, they would be like, oh my God, you bungled this whole thing, and people are dying, and you suck, and politicize it that way, right?

00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.320
Or saying like, oh, you are making all these draconian policies here, and the measures you are taking are inadequate and ill advised; and therefore, we're going to politicize, maybe, not the virus, but we are going to politicize the response to the pandemic.

00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.320
And of course, the response was politicized, but it was politicized in the opposite way: It was the Democrats, the Left Wing, that was saying, hey, we got to come together and fight this thing, because it affects us all.

00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.320
And the Right Wing was the one saying, oh no, this is ridiculous, it's a hoax.

00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.320
We're not going to take this thing seriously, and Democrats, you, guys, are all full of shit.

00:16:57.320 --> 00:17:42.349
So, it is disappointing, that we didn't have our"Independence Day" moment, where we would all band together.

00:17:41.730 --> 00:17:42.349
But it was also disappointing in the sense that it did become politicized, but it became politicized in the opposite way that you would think it would have been politicized, which shows how completely bizarre is the timeline that we're living in.

00:17:42.349 --> 00:18:16.859
You can't be prudent about wearing a mask, where if you're right-wing, you can't wear a mask, because if you wear a mask than, all of a sudden, it means that you are a Democrat.

00:18:17.579 --> 00:18:25.650
And because of the power of the American media, even in Europe it is associated, that if you're not wearing a mask, that's now like a calling card to say, hey, look, I'm a right-wing conservative.

00:18:25.651 --> 00:18:27.299
It's like your badge of honor.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
Which is completely ridiculous on the surface, but, unfortunately, the battle lines have been drawn up by media.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
Predominantly, by social media, but just media in general.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
And this is just another way to divide the population.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
I guess, this is pretty American-centric, because if you look at the authoritarian regimes, like Russia or China, the government is pretty firm.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
Or, maybe I should not say this, because that's not really fair: the government of the United States is also firm in saying that we should be taking it seriously.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
But the point there is that in countries like Russia and China, they essentially speak with one voice and they are dealing with misinformation with a laser focus.

00:18:26.339 --> 00:18:27.299
Whereas here in the United States, even though we have the executive branch saying, yes, we should take the pandemic seriously, you have people on the right, who are predominantly within the legislative branch, who are muddying the waters deliberately.

00:19:26.579 --> 00:19:31.950
And that's only exacerbated by the right wing media apparatus, slash, social media.

00:19:32.339 --> 00:19:40.859
Now, we can talk about social media some other time, but the whole point is that social media want to drive engagement numbers to increase their revenue streams.

00:19:41.279 --> 00:19:48.539
And controversy and people being divisive, people being angry with each other, is profitable to them.

00:19:48.540 --> 00:19:51.720
So there's an incentive to keep this type of lie going.

00:19:52.109 --> 00:20:11.970
And of course, as they say in the old KGB manual, you have a lot of"useful idiots" where the media can just drop a little nugget like, oh, COVID is only 2% death, and then these"useful idiots", which are just the people who consume that media… Note that I say"media", not"news", because they are not news.

00:20:11.971 --> 00:20:22.589
There has even been court cases on this, where they themselves say, oh no, you can't sue us, because we're not news, we're entertainment, but yet, they still lie and say that they're news to the public.

00:20:22.960 --> 00:20:24.119
Anyway, that's besides the point.

00:20:24.420 --> 00:20:27.990
But so, they drop these little nuggets of, quote,"statistics".

00:20:28.019 --> 00:20:33.990
Again, they're not bogus statistics, but the conclusion that you leap to from these....

00:20:34.230 --> 00:20:39.329
Again, it's not bullshit statistics, it's true statistic, but the conclusion that you leap to is bullshit.

00:20:40.079 --> 00:20:44.190
So, they drop that kind of like a pebble into a pond, and then you have the"useful idiots"...

00:20:44.191 --> 00:20:48.819
I'm not calling them idiots, but it's just a term that was used in those spy manuals.

00:20:48.820 --> 00:20:55.420
And then it takes a life of its own, kind of like the ripple effect in a pond: after you drop a stone.

00:20:55.421 --> 00:21:01.720
You can just drop a stone and walk away, seconds later, the lake is still disruptive with waves and ripples.

00:21:19.569 --> 00:21:19.869
The point here is that the final statistic that people like to throw out there, like that pebble into a pond, is that that statistic has underlying hidden statistics that it derives itself from.

00:21:19.569 --> 00:21:32.559
And those are equally, if not more important than the final statistic, because it is not just the final statistic that matters, but it is the nature of how that statistic came about, which should dictate public policy.

00:21:32.560 --> 00:21:40.720
In a news report it's fine to report the final statistic, but when you're doing public policy, it's not just about, what is happening.

00:21:40.721 --> 00:21:43.809
You have to understand why it is happening too, and then reduce those effects.

00:22:10.509 --> 00:22:10.779
You know what another great 2% statistic is?

00:22:10.509 --> 00:22:10.779
Only 2% of American military troops died in World War I.

00:22:10.509 --> 00:22:10.779
So, in that case World War I was not a big issue.

00:22:10.509 --> 00:22:10.779
Why is there this thing, that, oh my God, it was the war to end all wars, and it was such a bloody war, such a disaster?

00:22:10.509 --> 00:22:10.779
For the United States it was only 2% death.

00:22:10.509 --> 00:22:10.779
Obviously, you can see how ridiculous of a statement that is to say that World War I was not a big deal.

00:22:10.780 --> 00:22:25.779
Because, first off, the United States entered World War I pretty much at the end– in the fourth quarter– to face a depleted German military, where their will to fight and the effectiveness of their martial capability were severely diminished.

00:22:25.780 --> 00:22:34.900
And the US provided the much needed resources to the Allies to get through the hump, so that they could continue carrying on with the fight.

00:22:35.140 --> 00:22:45.369
And the deaths weren't just the United States, but it was also France, UK, and well, I guess Russia was already out because of the Bolshevik revolution, but again, the point here is that...

00:22:45.371 --> 00:22:46.839
you had that...

00:22:46.840 --> 00:23:00.460
And oh, by the way, the last year of the war was the advent of tank warfare, which did a big part in ending the war, because now you could use tanks to get over the trenches and you didn't have infantry getting mowed down by the machine gun fire.

00:23:00.040 --> 00:23:00.460
So there were a lot of underlying things that happened, which contributed to that final statistic of only 2% of American military dying in World War I.

00:23:00.040 --> 00:23:00.460
If you're telling me, oh, the COVID death rates are only 2%, it's not a big deal and we shouldn't worry about it, by that same logic I could say, oh, well, in that case, World War I wasn't a big deal, and we shouldn't worry about it because only 2% of the military died, so, who cares?

00:23:00.040 --> 00:23:00.460
But you can see how comical that statement would be.

00:23:00.789 --> 00:23:35.859
Another aspect of it is that the 2% is based on the overall population.

00:23:36.819 --> 00:23:42.789
Well, that population is divided amongst a whole gamut of age groups.

00:23:43.059 --> 00:24:02.180
And if it is presumed to be that the COVID virus is more dangerous to the elder than it is to young people, then that younger population is going to contribute to an overall lower death rate to the society, than one that is older, right?

00:24:02.240 --> 00:24:05.480
So all things being equal, and this is important, all things being equal, because it's not.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
But all things being equal, the death rate for, you know, Nigerians, for example, would be expected to be much lower than it would be for Japan, for example.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
And that is because Japan has a much larger proportion of elderly in their population, whereas Nigeria is a relatively young country.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
But again, all things being equal.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
And it's important to understand it, because that is the only really proper way that you can compare statistics to each other: if you isolate one variable.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
When you mix and mash a whole bunch of different things, then you don't really know.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
And it's kind of only God knows what's the actual causation is.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
So, in this case, that part of that 2% number comes from the fact that that most of their population is young.

00:24:05.181 --> 00:24:05.480
So it naturally reduces the death rate, but still that doesn't change the fact that the death rate is higher for the elderly.

00:24:55.220 --> 00:25:07.460
And these are just the things that we already know.

00:25:07.609 --> 00:25:15.200
But then again, the justification there is that people say, like, well, yeah, it's high, but it doesn't re really warrant shutting down the economy.

00:25:15.201 --> 00:25:21.799
And okay, well, fine, we'll let the old people sit home and be confined, whereas young people can go out and do things, right?

00:25:22.220 --> 00:25:23.690
Well, there are several things wrong with that.

00:25:24.440 --> 00:25:25.400
First off...

00:25:25.759 --> 00:25:38.210
I always remember when I was little, my parents, my grandparents, uncles, aunts, they would say, the problem with your generation is that you, guys, don't care about the elderly, you don't respect your elders.

00:25:38.211 --> 00:25:38.750
Right?

00:25:38.750 --> 00:25:40.819
Everything, me, me, me, selfish, selfish, selfish.

00:25:40.820 --> 00:25:45.920
And we show respect to our elders, and you, guys, don't.

00:25:45.921 --> 00:25:47.450
Well, now here we are.

00:25:47.451 --> 00:25:47.750
We have this pandemic that, by your own admission, doesn't affect us, but it affects you, guys.

00:25:47.570 --> 00:25:47.750
And we're the ones trying to protect the country, protect you, guys by having this confinement and lockdown.

00:25:47.570 --> 00:25:47.750
And you, guys, are the ones to say, oh no, screw everyone, go out there and do not be confined, right?

00:25:47.570 --> 00:25:47.750
Well, what were all those comments, all that lip service that you were giving us about how this generation doesn't respect its elders?

00:25:47.570 --> 00:25:47.750
So, that's one thing.

00:25:47.750 --> 00:26:21.019
But more importantly, is that, again, when we are talking about a virus, a pandemic, it is not a bullet, it is not a throw of dice.

00:26:21.020 --> 00:26:21.950
Things do not happen in isolation.

00:26:21.951 --> 00:26:30.380
If people are out there not being confined, this virus is spreading around and going around with them.

00:26:30.381 --> 00:26:33.589
Even if the death rate is low, people are still catching the virus.

00:26:33.590 --> 00:26:35.839
And when they come back home or when they do interact with the elderly, well, now you have a bigger chance, higher chance of exposure to someone who a young person who is infected.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
They may be asymptomatic, because as you like to say all the time, the 98% of young people are going to survive, so it's no big deal.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
Well, it's no big deal to them, but for you, it's a big deal, because you're elderly and your death rate is, supposedly, a lot higher.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
So, going back to the sharks versus cattle, if you are talking about, oh, well I never go out to the sea, so I'm not going to worry about sharks.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
Now, all of a sudden, you retired, you went down to a Ibiza or whatever, and now you are basically living by the ocean all the time.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
Well, maybe I shouldn't say Ibiza, because that's Mediterranean, and sharks, aren't really in Mediterranean.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
Anyway, you get the point.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
It is that your exposure rate to sharks now, all of a sudden, is much higher.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
So your death rate is going to be potentially higher.

00:26:35.480 --> 00:26:35.839
And this is a cause for concern.

00:27:19.289 --> 00:27:39.750
We shouldn't be taking things lightly, because, oh, the mortality rate for COVID is only 2%.

00:27:39.750 --> 00:27:42.210
There are underlying factors that contribute to that.

00:27:42.211 --> 00:27:43.829
It's not in isolation.

00:27:43.830 --> 00:27:47.880
This is not like you have a 2% chance of getting shot with a bullet.

00:27:47.881 --> 00:27:48.720
This is a virus.

00:27:48.721 --> 00:27:54.210
So every infection increases the exposure for others, and it just keeps going, and going, and going.

00:27:54.211 --> 00:27:55.349
That's the real threat here.

00:27:55.351 --> 00:27:58.109
And this is why the statistics are dangerous to be quoted.

00:27:58.111 --> 00:28:05.670
And you have a lot of"useful idiots", because people just take the final conclusion from the final statistic in isolation.

00:28:05.671 --> 00:28:08.009
And you can't do that, when there are correlating factors.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
A pandemic by definition is not in isolation.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
It's based on the interaction of humans and their proximity to the virus and to each other, because that's how the virus is spread.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
So that's the whole concept of herd immunity is that herd immunity is, essentially, making the population immune, and therefore reduce the exposure or the transmission rate of the virus.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
So, you can either do that through immunity, which is the case in a lot of cases, or in this case, where the jury is still out there, we don't know if you can be immune or if you get infected again.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
It seems to be from what we're seeing, even though if you get infected, it doesn't mean you're immune.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
You can get it again, we don't know this.

00:28:07.171 --> 00:28:08.009
I don't want to spread it false information out there.

00:28:55.349 --> 00:29:02.670
But because again, this is a novel coronavirus, emphasis on novel, we're still learning the data.

00:29:02.849 --> 00:29:07.109
Five years down the road, we'll know about this, because we'll have all the data there in front of us.

00:29:07.349 --> 00:29:12.539
We can make a logical conclusion, but right now we can't– there's not enough data out there.

00:29:12.540 --> 00:29:20.549
And there are enough anecdotes, shall we say, to warrant a cause of concern that, hey, immunity is not achievable.

00:29:20.670 --> 00:29:25.200
Well, if immunity is not achievable and you want to reduce the transmission rate, well, how are you going to do that?

00:29:25.529 --> 00:29:31.470
If immunity is off the table, then you do that through social distancing and confinement protocols.

00:29:32.339 --> 00:29:45.430
So that's essentially is just that dangerous, and the pitfalls are in just blindly quoting statistics without understanding the hidden statistics, that the statistic is derived from.

00:29:45.549 --> 00:29:54.099
[ Music].

00:29:55.089 --> 00:29:57.099
So the second thing is...

00:29:57.609 --> 00:29:59.109
Well, let me just take a detour here.

00:29:59.829 --> 00:30:09.369
One of the things that like teach you to worry about in military tactics, if you will, is the shooting to kill versus shooting to maim.

00:30:09.730 --> 00:30:23.650
And this was an issue that you'd see in Iraq and Afghanistan, that the insurgence would, in some cases, try not to kill the American or NATO troops, coalition, troops, but was trying to injure them.

00:30:23.920 --> 00:30:33.000
This is not just some profound thing, this is probably, I don't, I don't think it's in Sun Tzu’s"The Art of War", but essentially it is as old Sun Tzu, or, well, maybe not as old as that, I don't know.

00:30:32.690 --> 00:30:35.650
We probably can talk about military story in here, because the unique thing these days is that military...

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
Is that modern Militaries, and I can definitely speak about the United States, is that we will do almost anything to save our own troops.

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
And that's the whole thing about the US Air Force, PJs, the Pararescuemen, is that others may live, and the whole, CSAR- Combat Search and Rescue- is that a...

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
And a lot of this came, I guess, from Vietnam and whatnot, is that if someone is behind enemy lines, or if they're trapped, or you get shot down, I say this from an Air Force perspective, we will stop everything, all the operations in that area, and go and rescue the airman or soldier, or whoever it is..

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
sailor or Marine.

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
And only after we rescue them, will we go back and recommence operations.

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
And the enemy knows this, that specifically, and I'm talking about the United States, but this is true for a lot of other militaries as well, is that if one of our guys is down or injured or anything like that, we're going to do whatever it takes.

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
Even if it takes 10 guys or gals, whatever, I'm from New York, so"guys" is a neutral term.

00:30:35.500 --> 00:30:35.650
So, yeah, even if it kills like 10 guys, we're still going to, we're going to get that one guy that is injured on the battlefield.

00:32:22.359 --> 00:32:29.920
So, the logic there is that if you really want to, again, not strategically, but tactically, stop, the US troops, all you got to do...

00:32:29.921 --> 00:32:48.950
I'm going to say,"all you got to do" is kind of facetiously, but all you got to do is injure one of the soldiers and then the rest of the unit is going to stop everything, they are doing to try to get that injured troops out of there.

00:32:48.951 --> 00:32:55.700
And while they're trying to get that injured out of there, you can go pick them off and start killing them and everything like that.

00:32:55.701 --> 00:33:04.279
It is kind of a morbid thing, but hey, we are talking about the pandemic, so, I guess, the theme fits.

00:33:04.640 --> 00:33:07.609
But the point here is that it's almost...

00:33:08.240 --> 00:33:12.740
I don't know how to phrase this, any way I phrase this is going to come out bad.

00:33:12.740 --> 00:33:13.910
But from the perspective of zero emotion or zero tact, it's almost better if the person dies, because then the unit is not going stop, and they're going to continue with the operation.

00:33:13.401 --> 00:33:13.910
Of course, afterwards, they are going to come back and grab the KIA.

00:33:13.401 --> 00:33:13.910
But, uh, but the point is that if they're injured, everything stops to focus to get that person back to prevent the death.

00:33:13.401 --> 00:33:13.910
Whereas, if the person is dead, well, the dead, you can't make them undead.

00:33:13.401 --> 00:33:13.910
So, an effective tactic in modern-day military, where militaries, they try to, generally speaking, try to save their own, is that even though it is an incredibly hard to do, is not shoot to kill, but shoot to maim, shoot to injure.

00:33:13.401 --> 00:33:13.910
And it stops the operation in its tracks.

00:33:14.869 --> 00:33:15.259
Okay.

00:33:18.710 --> 00:33:21.200
So what does this have to do with the pandemic?

00:33:21.500 --> 00:33:21.890
Well here.

00:33:21.891 --> 00:33:28.700
Again, one of the things that we try to do here as the podcast, is we're trying to not being politicians, we're trying to be statesman.

00:33:28.701 --> 00:33:42.680
And the difference between a politician and a statesman that a politician, you know, they obviously, they deal with politics, where statement try to be above that, above the political fray and are trying to do what's best for the country, which presumably is apolitical.

00:33:42.681 --> 00:33:48.799
And in this case, forget about the fact that the entire pandemic has been politicized.

00:33:48.800 --> 00:33:52.250
It's a fact now, you can't stop it.

00:33:52.250 --> 00:33:55.640
The cat is already out of the bag, but the point here is what matters for the country.

00:34:17.360 --> 00:34:17.599
A minor detour.

00:34:17.360 --> 00:34:17.599
One of the things I remember my grandfather would say to me, is that it's always good to study war.

00:34:17.360 --> 00:34:17.599
Because in war the human condition boils away all frivolities, so that you only focus on the cold, hard realities, boil away all the bullshit.

00:34:17.360 --> 00:34:18.650
And what matters is...

00:34:18.679 --> 00:34:20.809
All that matters is the cold, hard realities.

00:34:21.079 --> 00:34:33.530
And not only the cold, hard realities, that's what happens in the war, but also soldiers, generals, people who are in the profession of war, don't have the luxury of dealing with politics, because people's lives are on the line.

00:34:33.829 --> 00:34:39.739
So, naturally, the best solution or the best strategy is going to naturally percolate up.

00:34:40.099 --> 00:34:54.710
It may take a while and may cause lots of deaths, like it, did in the World War II, the World War I, or you know, many different wars, but eventually the best idea is going to come up because war and the death that come with war- there is a finality to it.

00:34:54.710 --> 00:35:00.829
So, you can't really hide behind political propaganda, because it becomes very quickly evident.

00:35:01.449 --> 00:35:07.699
Again, a classic examples is Vietnam: they tried to politicize it and say, oh no, everything's fine with Vietnam, but then it became quickly apparent everything was not fine because that's just the gruesome nature of war.

00:35:07.250 --> 00:35:07.699
And then only later did we realize that we had to do other things to get out of Vietnam.

00:35:07.250 --> 00:35:07.699
And those tactics became readily apparent.

00:35:07.699 --> 00:35:42.090
I don't know if this was in a Harvard business review or, if it was in The Economist, but one of those big newspapers and magazines, I forget where it was, but they were talking about how a lot of business schools and executives are now focusing on military strategy and are taking lessons from there to make business decisions.

00:35:42.090 --> 00:35:49.619
Because economists and sociologists can say a lot of bullshit, that sounds nice.

00:35:49.621 --> 00:35:53.699
And you say, oh yeah, I'm going to try that for my business, and it may or may not work, because there are so many different factors.

00:35:53.701 --> 00:36:01.590
But because business doesn't have the finality, that war has, your guess is as good as mine whether that practice is going to work.

00:36:02.190 --> 00:36:19.480
But if you are studying war, the martial arts, if you will, not like Bruce Lee martial, but martial, as in military arts, then because of the finality of war, the best practices that come from the military can presumably be used as best practices in business.

00:36:19.530 --> 00:36:25.289
I don't know if it was in the late nineties, when everyone, all these businessmen started picking up copies of Sun Tzu.

00:36:25.291 --> 00:36:30.090
Now everyone has a copy of“The Art of War”, even though no one ever reads it.

00:36:30.090 --> 00:36:31.440
It's kind of like Christians with the Bible...

00:36:31.440 --> 00:36:47.309
Anyway, I'm joking, I'm joking! And the point is, when you look at the military or when you look at things from a military perspective, it is a good way of boiling away, all the bullshit and dealing with what really matters.

00:37:01.500 --> 00:37:01.590
And the reason why I bring that up is that, in the military I made the analogy with the World War I and how 2% of Americans died.

00:37:01.500 --> 00:37:07.800
I don't know what the death rates are for Iraq or Afghanistan or some of the other recent wars that happened.

00:37:07.800 --> 00:37:16.199
Let's just not say you the United States, we can talk about death rate of the French in Mali or Ukrainians or Russians in, I guess, Ukraine.

00:37:16.230 --> 00:37:20.400
Or I guess if you're Russian, then you're saying Russians in Russia.

00:37:20.400 --> 00:37:30.570
But you look at those death rates, and they are probably a lot less than 2%, I'm assuming, I'm imagining, I don't know what the actual numbers are.

00:37:30.570 --> 00:37:32.460
But you can make the same thing, the same logic there.

00:37:32.460 --> 00:37:36.329
If you leap to the conclusion, saying, oh, death rate in these wars are so low.

00:37:36.480 --> 00:37:50.550
Well, in that case, if you make a parallel with the pandemic, well, in that case, we don't need body armor, we don't need armored personnel carriers, we don't need military security around Forward Operating Bases, because death rate is so low.

00:37:50.550 --> 00:37:52.619
Why"waste" all the money on trying to protect soldiers from a death scenario who's probability is so low, right?

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
It's only 2%, or less than 2%.

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
Why do that?

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
Now, of course, if I said that, or if a politician said that...

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
Imagine, if the president, Biden or Trump, whoever, said that, hey, you know what?

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
we're not going to give our soldiers body armor or Armored Personnel Carriers, or up-armored Humvees, because death rate is so low, there would be a massive riot going on, right?

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
For obvious reasons.

00:37:52.351 --> 00:37:52.619
Because while you can fool people with something like the pandemic, or some other thing like that, in war it becomes painfully obvious that the statistic might be accurate, but the conclusion that you leap to is complete bullshit.

00:38:41.079 --> 00:38:41.860
And what does this have to do with shooting to injure, or shooting to meme?

00:38:42.099 --> 00:38:54.730
Well, the thing is, if we look at the pandemic as a war where we're fighting against the virus, what people are focusing on is the, is the death rate, which is, again, the analogy is shoot the death.

00:38:55.420 --> 00:39:06.130
But that's not the issue, because again, in my very cold, nasty way of saying things, if a soldier dies, it's"not as bad as, as being injured" in that specific scenario that I'm talking about.

00:39:06.130 --> 00:39:11.079
The injury is"worse" than the death, right, because it stops everything, grinds everything to a halt.

00:39:11.081 --> 00:39:15.760
Take that analogy back to the COVID pandemic, and that's the issue here.

00:39:15.760 --> 00:39:18.190
The issue here is not that people are dying.

00:39:18.190 --> 00:39:21.070
People are not saying, oh, we need to go to lockdown, because people are dying.

00:39:21.070 --> 00:39:30.940
The reason why we went to a lockdown, or the reason why we're taking all these precautions, is because that you have patients going into hospitals, going to ICU.

00:39:32.590 --> 00:39:35.380
And they're using the hospital beds for two weeks.

00:39:35.500 --> 00:39:36.789
It's like the Ebola virus.

00:39:36.880 --> 00:39:38.590
You know, if you go back to, uh, what was this?

00:39:38.710 --> 00:39:39.190
Michael Crichton book?

00:39:39.429 --> 00:39:39.969
Um, not Congo...

00:39:40.090 --> 00:39:44.679
"The Hot Zone"! Yeah, that was"The Hot Zone", yeah, that was it.

00:39:44.739 --> 00:39:56.619
So, again, it's not like"The Hot Zone" Ebola virus, where, okay, it has 90% mortality or whatever it was, but people die within three days: you come to a hospital and three days later you are dead.

00:39:56.621 --> 00:39:59.739
I don't remember how many days it was, but the point is, it was very short.

00:39:59.800 --> 00:40:01.269
It was a super-fast virus, super deadly, just killed people immediately.

00:40:01.539 --> 00:40:14.559
The thing is there, again, if you're looking at it from a cold calculated perspective, then your hospital, I'm using air quotes again, is"fine" in the sense that, okay, someone got infected with Ebola, they were there for three days, they died.

00:40:15.039 --> 00:40:17.889
You do what you have to do with disposing that body, but the hospital bed is free.

00:40:17.889 --> 00:40:24.670
With the coronavirus it's different.

00:40:24.670 --> 00:40:31.690
It is not killing people, but instead people are lingering in the hospital for two weeks at a time, maybe even longer.

00:40:31.869 --> 00:40:34.300
And there's only a limited number of ICU's.

00:40:34.300 --> 00:40:40.840
It's kind of like, when I'm going back to the analogy of the body armor or the up-armored Humvees, up-armored Humvees are very expensive.

00:40:40.840 --> 00:40:42.130
The body armor is expensive.

00:40:42.130 --> 00:40:55.539
The cost of equipping a soldier to preventing this, quote, 2% death rate in a military operation that we just established that the president would be hanged for, it costs a lot of money to equip the soldiers.

00:40:55.541 --> 00:41:02.380
So, the more body armor that is being taken, the more Humvees that are being taken, the less Humvees to be used for other things.

00:41:02.440 --> 00:41:08.710
And if you were having more soldiers coming into the battlefield, that means you have to spend more money for more Humvees.

00:41:10.030 --> 00:41:14.199
And when you're talking about a virus, the equivalent of the soldiers are the people, who are being infected.

00:41:14.201 --> 00:41:15.519
They are fighting off the virus.

00:41:15.521 --> 00:41:18.070
And the Humvees here in this case are the ICU's.

00:41:17.951 --> 00:41:21.699
Again, the point here is not that people were dying, which...

00:41:21.940 --> 00:41:29.739
of course that was a point, but in this specific conversation, the point is not that people were dying is that they were taking up the hospital beds for two freaking weeks.

00:41:29.740 --> 00:41:32.920
So, the hospitals physically couldn't handle the capacity.

00:41:32.929 --> 00:41:34.099
There weren't enough Humvees.

00:41:34.101 --> 00:41:38.510
There wasn't enough body armor to give to all the new"soldiers" coming into the battlefield.

00:41:38.510 --> 00:41:40.369
That was the issue.

00:41:40.371 --> 00:41:42.230
That's why most statistics like you look in...

00:41:42.231 --> 00:41:55.579
in Europe, that was also the initial discussions with the CDC before everything got politicized, that was the statistic that really mattered a lot, was that, do we have the healthcare system capacity to deal with the pandemic?

00:41:56.510 --> 00:41:59.510
And in this case it was the ICU's, the hospital beds.

00:41:59.510 --> 00:42:01.099
The more people got infected...

00:42:01.101 --> 00:42:04.659
Again, because they weren't dying immediately or immediately healing...

00:42:04.690 --> 00:42:06.800
Like, if you have a cold, you're done in three days.

00:42:06.800 --> 00:42:10.159
If you have the Ebola, air quotes, you're"done" in three days, you're dead.

00:42:09.951 --> 00:42:16.219
The point here is being that the hospital beds are free for other people to get a treatment for whatever it is.

00:42:16.710 --> 00:42:18.619
With COVID that's not the case.

00:42:18.621 --> 00:42:22.639
You're there for two, maybe three weeks long and you're taking up space.

00:42:22.641 --> 00:42:27.019
And someone sneaky is going to be, like, well, you know, who cares?

00:42:27.021 --> 00:42:29.210
Because again, at the end of the day, it's 2% death rate.

00:42:29.210 --> 00:42:36.860
So I don't really care if the hospitals are being, uh, used up, I'm young and healthy and you know, I work out and I eat properly.

00:42:36.860 --> 00:42:38.780
So I'm not going to get COVID well, yeah.

00:42:40.369 --> 00:42:40.610
Okay.

00:42:40.610 --> 00:42:41.329
Well, that's fine.

00:42:41.331 --> 00:42:45.860
Yeah, you're young and healthy and you do that, but you know, maybe you ride a bike, a motorcycle or whatever.

00:42:46.099 --> 00:42:51.019
Maybe you are just going to work, and,"Final Destination" style, you get into a traffic accident.

00:42:51.021 --> 00:42:55.099
Because we do have statistics on traffic accidents, and that is really high.

00:42:55.581 --> 00:42:56.989
And a lot of people get into traffic accidents.

00:42:56.990 --> 00:43:05.690
Or maybe you're working on your house during the confinement and you're on the ladder, and then you fall, your trip, and then you break your ankle, or something like that.

00:43:05.690 --> 00:43:11.929
Or you fall down on the rake and now you need to go into the hospital for a tetanus shot, or something like that, whatever, whatever it is.

00:43:11.931 --> 00:43:15.940
There's a kajillion different ways that we can get injured and require emergency services.

00:43:22.789 --> 00:43:27.320
And again, by your statistic that you admit to that, hey, only 2% die.

00:43:27.320 --> 00:43:28.159
It's not a big deal.

00:43:28.340 --> 00:43:32.269
But it has nothing to do with the ICU occupation statistic.

00:43:32.539 --> 00:43:44.059
So there you are coming in for a normally just a minor injury that requires a hospital bed, it's minor but serious, so you require medical help, medical assistance.

00:43:44.061 --> 00:43:50.059
But because all the beds are being taken, all of a sudden, now you can't get to the treatment that you need.

00:43:50.061 --> 00:43:58.909
And if all of these ICU beds are being used up by COVID people, now things that you shouldn't have been dying to, now, all of a sudden, you're dying to.

00:43:58.911 --> 00:44:03.289
And these things are not being reported because, technically, this has nothing to do with COVID.

00:44:03.291 --> 00:44:05.750
You died from tetanus, you didn't die from COVID.

00:44:05.751 --> 00:44:21.019
But because these things are related, the seemingly unrelated statistic of the COVID pandemic is directly affecting the seemingly unrelated healthcare situation of you getting bit by your neighbor's dog and potentially getting rabies.

00:44:21.021 --> 00:44:29.179
And now, all of a sudden, while you should be surviving, because you got bit by the dog, you would just go and get your shot, but now, all of a sudden, you can't do that, because the beds are being taken.

00:44:28.610 --> 00:44:29.179
And now you've got rabies and, of course, rabies a hundred percent mortality rate, so now you're dead.

00:44:28.610 --> 00:44:29.179
When you shouldn't have been dead, but now you're dead.

00:44:29.449 --> 00:44:39.809
That's the issue.

00:44:40.199 --> 00:44:42.030
That's why we went down to lockdown.

00:44:42.059 --> 00:44:43.530
That's why we've been taking these thing seriously.

00:44:43.530 --> 00:44:46.920
We have social distancing, because we didn't have the beds.

00:44:47.119 --> 00:44:53.610
Our healthcare system physically couldn't handle the two to three weeks that people were occupying beds.

00:44:53.849 --> 00:45:02.940
And, so, to go back to the war analogy, it's like, you're putting more troops to the frontline, sending more troops to Iraq, but you're not giving those new troops the body armor.

00:45:03.239 --> 00:45:08.789
Or another cheeky comparison is World War II Stalingrad-"Enemy at the Gates".

00:45:08.880 --> 00:45:12.780
You got all your soldiers, but you only have a certain number of guns.

00:45:12.780 --> 00:45:15.829
And now you're telling them saying, well, you're going to go out there without guns.

00:45:15.541 --> 00:45:15.829
Anyone who dies, you're going to pick up their gun, but otherwise you just go in there, meat to the grinder.

00:45:15.541 --> 00:45:15.829
That may have worked for 1942 Soviet union, but it's not going to work for 2020 the United States.

00:45:15.889 --> 00:45:33.210
People who take the pandemic seriously, rightfully say, oh, well, it's not just about death rate.

00:45:33.389 --> 00:45:39.389
It's about taking care of people, and death rate matters because it's not 2%, it's actually higher.

00:45:39.510 --> 00:45:44.340
Or, oh, you're going to lose your sense of smell, or you can get pneumonia later on, and everything.

00:45:44.340 --> 00:45:56.579
Those are all, obviously, true and well-meant arguments, but it's not going to sway all these, I'll call them, pandemic deniers, or the people, the"useful idiots", who consume the rhetoric of the pandemic deniers.

00:46:07.050 --> 00:46:11.730
But war has an amazing ability to boil away all the bullshit.

00:46:12.449 --> 00:46:20.639
And when you look at it and you just look at and say, the pandemic, regardless of all those other things that you talk about, it ties up our healthcare systems.

00:46:20.641 --> 00:46:29.010
So that even if you're not going to die from COVID, now all of a sudden your mortality rate for something that was originally innocuous, now becomes deadly.

00:46:29.400 --> 00:46:29.880
And that's a problem.

00:46:29.880 --> 00:46:43.650
And it's not just hospital beds, because I know someone's going to listen to this and I can already see the angry comments, saying things like, even if it's a premature baby, well, technically, they don't need the ICU, they just need a, you know, any old bed will do, or something like that.

00:46:43.650 --> 00:46:45.059
Okay, fine, point taken.

00:46:45.061 --> 00:46:46.679
But again, good faith argument here.

00:46:46.681 --> 00:46:47.969
Listen to what I'm trying to say here.

00:46:47.969 --> 00:46:48.239
Okay.

00:46:48.360 --> 00:46:52.150
Maybe not the ICUs, but the fact that all the nurse staff are taxed.

00:46:52.380 --> 00:47:00.030
The doctors are taxed, because, we saw all the horror stories about how people are working, ridiculous numbers of shifts, and they are completely taxed.

00:47:00.030 --> 00:47:05.369
They come home, cry because of all the trauma that they've had with dealing with all these COVID patients.

00:47:05.371 --> 00:47:07.019
And they're still doing it nowadays.

00:47:07.021 --> 00:47:23.909
And they're getting maybe four hours of sleep and all, and then you come, and you're dealing with a doctor or a nurse, who are completely burnt out from all those, uh,“COVIDiots”, as people like to say, who didn't take it seriously, and now they do make a mistake, or they give the wrong medication to you or to your wife.

00:47:23.911 --> 00:47:25.739
And all of a sudden they're dead.

00:47:25.740 --> 00:47:29.530
Obviously, that's a really doomed scenario, but that's what the seriousness of this pandemic is about.

00:47:34.659 --> 00:47:40.659
It's not about the death, which of course is serious, but that's not the argument that's going to sway these pandemic deniers.

00:47:40.989 --> 00:47:43.360
The issue is tying up the healthcare system.

00:47:43.750 --> 00:47:52.869
And we can have a separate discussion about, oh, well, this would have been a good opportunity to talk about how we should revamp our healthcare system and make it more affordable.

00:47:53.019 --> 00:47:58.900
Make the hospitals with higher capacity, mobilize the healthcare infrastructure to deal with things in the future.

00:47:59.110 --> 00:48:02.320
And that's a great, and it's a missed opportunity, that we didn't deal with that.

00:48:02.590 --> 00:48:08.710
And it's another thing, again, going back to that last week, we were talking about this, how Democrats are just complete morons with their messaging.

00:48:08.860 --> 00:48:13.599
Even now, when they're talking about trying to get Medicare for all, they're not using this pandemic to make their case.

00:48:13.601 --> 00:48:21.280
It's that they deal with these other talking points that just completely get shot down by the likes of Fox news or Newsmax, or whatever.

00:48:21.699 --> 00:48:26.500
This would have been a good conversation to have about mobilizing the country.

00:48:26.710 --> 00:48:31.179
Just like we did when we mobilized for the World War II or for any of these other wars.

00:48:31.420 --> 00:48:35.500
Because, again, war has a distinct ability to boil away the bullshit.

00:48:35.501 --> 00:48:46.780
And when at war, if you have to send more troops in, you're going to need to mobilize them and train and equip them, and give them their body armor, or the equipment that they need to fight.

00:48:46.780 --> 00:48:49.750
And the fact, the matter is, even forget about the patients.

00:48:49.751 --> 00:48:57.070
The hospitals and the healthcare staff- we didn't arm them with the necessary tools that they needed to fight this pandemic.

00:48:57.070 --> 00:48:59.519
That's why there was this whole big thing with the masks.

00:48:59.530 --> 00:49:04.469
And everyone likes to say, oh, well the CDC, they sold conspiracy.

00:49:04.480 --> 00:49:06.400
They could have told us masks help.

00:49:07.030 --> 00:49:10.599
And then now they hid the fact from us because, you know, they needed the masks.

00:49:10.840 --> 00:49:11.679
But yeah, but you know what?

00:49:11.710 --> 00:49:15.400
Yeah, they do need the masks, because they are on the front lines, fighting just like in a war.

00:49:15.639 --> 00:49:24.280
You don't need body armor, when you're walking down the street, even though we have the Second Amendment and you want to carry your AR-15 down the street, and then you want to have your body armor, because you want to look cool.

00:49:24.280 --> 00:49:34.090
Or like the police want to wear their body armor, because they think their local fellow citizens are all potential armed and dangerous criminals, which is a topic for another podcast.

00:49:34.480 --> 00:49:48.519
But the thing is, you don't need them as you don't need the body armor as much as the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, who are actually, day in and day out, fighting and have a real, very real threat of dying from the enemy actions.

00:49:49.000 --> 00:49:49.269
Okay.

00:49:49.271 --> 00:49:50.199
So, here's the thing.

00:49:50.500 --> 00:49:52.329
We can talk about the mask situation.

00:49:52.699 --> 00:49:55.329
And that's a big, really big pet peeve of mine.

00:49:54.940 --> 00:50:02.889
But what really infuriates me about this, is that the same people who are the COVID deniers...

00:50:03.039 --> 00:50:16.900
Let's just say, there's a giant overlap, again, because of the politicized nature of this pandemic, of people who are super pro guns, super pro Second Amendment, where it's like, you have a right to bear arms and tanks and you know, missiles, and they can do anything they want.

00:50:16.900 --> 00:50:22.570
They think it's the"Red Dawn", and the Democrats are the"Soviet Mexicans".

00:50:22.570 --> 00:50:29.119
Red Dawn, I forgot, I haven't watched it in a long time, but, I think, it was Mexico that was under the Soviet occupation, right?

00:50:29.121 --> 00:50:33.829
Anyway, the Soviet Mexicans are coming and you're in Montana with your gun.

00:50:34.159 --> 00:50:35.630
And you single handily are going to save the country, right?

00:50:35.210 --> 00:50:35.630
This is ever Second Amendment gun guy's dream.

00:50:35.840 --> 00:50:46.250
What, do a lot of these gun people do?

00:50:46.251 --> 00:50:49.760
They love to go on the internet and see pictures of people with guns.

00:50:49.760 --> 00:50:51.800
And what is something, that they always like to derisively talk about?

00:50:52.311 --> 00:50:54.139
Oh, the guy doesn't have trigger discipline.

00:50:54.141 --> 00:50:55.369
He doesn't have muzzle discipline.

00:50:55.371 --> 00:51:00.079
You're always supposed to have your index finger on the side of the gun.

00:51:00.081 --> 00:51:01.550
You should never have it on your trigger.

00:51:01.550 --> 00:51:02.929
You should never pointed at anyone.

00:51:02.931 --> 00:51:12.800
And they like to make a big show of taking pictures with their AR-15s, walking down public streets, terrorizing their fellow citizen, but they have it.

00:51:12.800 --> 00:51:13.219
They're carrying it.

00:51:13.221 --> 00:51:15.769
They're not pointing at anyone, because they have the muzzle discipline.

00:51:15.771 --> 00:51:21.889
They like to show the pictures of their index finger extended because, hey, look, I got triggered discipline, right?

00:51:23.059 --> 00:51:23.869
Well, excuse me.

00:51:24.320 --> 00:51:30.019
Why do we have muzzle discipline and trigger discipline, it's an unloaded gun, right?

00:51:30.050 --> 00:51:33.739
So the death rate from an unloaded gun is like practically 0%.

00:51:33.980 --> 00:51:34.940
What are you worried about it?

00:51:35.119 --> 00:51:41.409
You can point the gun at whoever the hell you want, brandishing laws aside, but you can point the muzzle anywhere you want.

00:51:41.690 --> 00:51:45.710
You can put your index finger on the trigger all you want, click it all you want it, because who cares?

00:51:45.710 --> 00:51:46.760
It's an unloaded gun.

00:51:47.059 --> 00:51:47.539
That's...

00:51:47.570 --> 00:51:48.260
who cares about it?

00:51:48.260 --> 00:51:50.510
And everyone likes to make a big, giant deal about this.

00:51:50.510 --> 00:52:02.809
And any time they see someone who doesn't have trigger discipline, immediately, everyone vultures to the carrion, oh, the guy does not have the trigger discipline! The guy doesn't have trigger discipline, but why is that such a big deal?

00:52:02.811 --> 00:52:07.489
Because it's not that the overall statistical of unloaded gun means the death rate is so low.

00:52:07.490 --> 00:52:07.730
It's the fact that there's a potential for death.

00:52:07.490 --> 00:52:07.730
And even if there's a 0.001% chance of death, the outcome, which is death, is pretty drastic, right?

00:52:07.490 --> 00:52:07.730
It's not like a 0.001% chance that you're going to get an upset stomach.

00:52:07.490 --> 00:52:07.730
But the fact that the outcome is death, that's a huge thing.

00:52:07.490 --> 00:52:07.730
And that's why we have trigger discipline and muzzle discipline.

00:52:07.730 --> 00:52:34.369
Well, take that same logic to the pandemic.

00:52:34.789 --> 00:52:36.800
The outcome here that we're talking about is death.

00:52:36.800 --> 00:52:37.760
It's people's lives.

00:52:37.820 --> 00:52:39.079
It's a pandemic, it is a virus.

00:52:39.590 --> 00:52:43.579
And you're here, making a big deal about muzzle or triggered discipline.

00:52:43.909 --> 00:52:45.889
Yet you won't even wear a mask.

00:52:46.429 --> 00:52:47.750
What do you think a mask is?

00:52:47.751 --> 00:52:54.349
When, again, going back to the analogy of military, where military scenarios boil away the bullshit, putting a mask on...

00:52:53.931 --> 00:52:59.179
that's another statistics is saying, oh, masks are only 10% effective and blah, blah, blah, who cares?

00:52:59.840 --> 00:53:03.409
Just like with your trigger discipline, you put a mask on just in case.

00:53:03.141 --> 00:53:04.730
It is not going to prevent everything.

00:53:05.181 --> 00:53:11.750
Your mask is basically your muzzle discipline, where in this case in a pandemic of an airborne virus...

00:53:11.061 --> 00:53:17.150
or, I guess, someone is going to say, well, actually, it's not airborne, it's on water droplets, but you understand what I'm saying.

00:53:16.851 --> 00:53:23.300
The point is, when we are talking about an airborne virus, the muzzle is essentially your mouth and your nose.

00:53:23.300 --> 00:53:30.420
Your mouth and your nose are shooting out viruses, viral particles, just like a gun can shoot out bullets.

00:53:30.420 --> 00:53:35.340
And even with the gun, you know, you've checked it, it's cleared and it's empty.

00:53:35.340 --> 00:53:36.510
The magazine is empty.

00:53:36.510 --> 00:53:44.519
But even though that's the case and you know it, you verified it, you still have the muzzle discipline, because that's the right thing to do.

00:53:45.059 --> 00:53:50.579
And if you are serious about guns, this is ingrained to you from your very first lesson that you do this.

00:53:50.581 --> 00:53:52.860
You treat every gun, like it's loaded, right?

00:53:52.860 --> 00:53:53.610
That's the same.

00:53:53.969 --> 00:53:58.469
Well, it is the same case with the pandemic: treat every person like they're infected.

00:53:58.769 --> 00:54:03.809
And if you practice muzzle discipline with a gun, you should practice"muzzle" discipline with your mouth.

00:54:04.139 --> 00:54:08.429
And in that case, you wear a mask, just like you would you have the muzzle discipline with a gun.

00:54:08.820 --> 00:54:10.409
When you don't do that, when you just take...

00:54:10.519 --> 00:54:18.090
When you try to politicize this and say, oh, well, I don't care about this, I'm not gonna wear my mask, because, screw you guys! And it's only 10% effective.

00:54:18.300 --> 00:54:19.469
Well, you know what you are?

00:54:19.471 --> 00:54:21.239
You're just faux American.

00:54:21.240 --> 00:54:33.210
Just like you are cosplaying being a soldier by acting all tough with your body armor and your AR-15 down the street, you are cosplaying as an American, when you don't put the mask on.

00:54:33.360 --> 00:54:36.329
Because you don't care about your fellow citizens.

00:54:36.331 --> 00:54:41.880
Because if you did, you would put the mask on, because of the offhand chance, that you do have the virus.

00:54:41.880 --> 00:54:47.280
Even though it is 10% effective from preventing your infection, it's not about you.

00:54:47.280 --> 00:54:49.829
It's about making sure that no one else gets hurt.

00:54:49.831 --> 00:54:54.059
And that's exactly what they teach you from day one, when you handle a gun.

00:55:01.289 --> 00:55:13.500
If you would like to comment on this podcast or on the topics covered within it, or you'd like us to raise a new topic in our next episode, please feel free to leave us a message or a voicemail on www.codbsm.com.

00:55:13.889 --> 00:55:17.400
That's Charlie Oscar, Delta, Bravo, Sierra, Mike dot com.

00:55:17.849 --> 00:55:20.460
Thank you for listening and see you at the party, Richter!

00:55:20.880 --> 00:55:26.579
[ Music].